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Market Update - ECB delivers first cut, but will need more confidence for the next one

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ECB
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Rate Cut
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Market Update

Market Update - ECB delivers first cut, but will need more confidence for the next one

Jun 7, 2024

  • The ECB delivered its first rate cut in almost five years, and did not wait for the Fed to act first. The move comes 9 months after the last hike was delivered which had marked the end of 450bps of cumulative hikes delivered in the space of approximately 1.5 years. The ECB became the fourth major Developed Market Central Bank to ease rates, after similar moves earlier from Central Banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Canada. Attention will now naturally shift to the next Bank of England and the Federal Reserve meetings, although we will likely have to wait a few more months before they follow through with cuts
  • The ECB decision to cut rates today is arguably a milestone, however it came as no surprise whatsoever. Markets were ultimately fully pricing in the move today, and were keen to get it ‘out of the way’ and focus instead on any clues of the future pace and timing of cuts. In this respect, the press statement could be termed a ‘hawkish cut,’ in the sense that the explicit easing bias was removed. Inflation projections were raised for 2024 and 2025, though Ms Lagarde avoided to make any speculation on the timing of future moves. “Data dependency” and “meeting by meeting approach” were the standard terms used to avoid pre-committing to any path
  • The initial reaction to the inflation projections led to a spike in EURUSD above 1.09, however gains were pared back as we moved through the conference. Ms Lagarde may have avoided speculation on future cuts, however at the same time she expressed “greater confidence in the path ahead,” and commended the increasing reliability of the ECB’s forecasts. The 2 per cent inflation target remains in sight; however, the ECB now expects progress to become more evident in 2H 2025. The main policy rate has now been lowered to 3.75 per cent, however this is still seen as restrictive by the Central Bank and remains at a distance from the estimated neutral level
  • Although the ECB acknowledged there will be bumps in the data ahead, the market still expects the journey to involve further cuts this year, with September carrying a 94 per cent probability and a total of two cuts seen from now until January 2025. Our base case remains for two cuts but data dependency and revised language from the ECB create risk for a more moderate pace. The start of the cutting cycle reinforces our view that a ceiling in yields has been reached, so any volatility can be seen as an opportunity for investors to put cash to work in quality bonds. The recovery in EUR has been spurred from improved risk sentiment, cyclical strength and the latest upward surprise in European wage and inflation data. We expect EURUSD to soften in H2, as interest rate differentials and US election uncertainties are likely to support USD. We maintain our high conviction theme on “The Magnificent Europeans” – reflecting our desire to capture the broadening of the global cyclical and earnings outlook

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