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India Perspectives - Strong growth and external resilience support bullish stance on Indian assets

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India Perspectives - Strong growth and external resilience support bullish stance on Indian assets

Jul 9, 2024

  • India’s economic momentum remains robust. High frequency indicators such as PMIs, industrial production etc. are pointing towards a still robust growth momentum.  We are also looking for an uptick in FDI flows and an uptick in private sector capex following the election results. Hence, we upgrade our growth forecast for India for 2024 to 7.3 per cent (from 6.3 per cent previously)
  • RBI faces an unenviable task of managing K-shaped inflation dynamics with large variance in various underlying components of inflation, especially the stubbornly high food inflation. We continue to expect the first RBI rate cut of 25bp in August meeting but remain vary of three factors which could lead to a delay in the rate cuts – (i) an expansive Union Budget, which could stroke inflationary concerns, (ii) weaker monsoon, which could keep food inflation sticky and (iii) increase in oil and commodity prices
  • Indian equities have outperformed global and US equities in the first half of 2024. We maintain a mild overweight on Indian equities over the next 6-12 months as long-term fundamentals still paint a supportive backdrop. Indian equities benefit from (i) strong domestic investor base – both institutional and retail, (ii) light positioning from foreign investors and (iii) strong corporate earnings growth. The above-mentioned factors should offset the concerns of elevated valuations. We continue to favour Large-cap equities over small and mid-cap equities, owing to their more defensive characteristics and cheaper valuation. From a sector perspective, we favour Indian banks, consumer discretionary and industrials which benefit from the booming digital economy, consumer spending and government spending push towards infrastructure and manufacturing
  • We are bullish on Indian local currency bonds. While we acknowledge the risk of delay in RBI rate cuts, the 4-2 split vote in June meeting points towards eventual pivot to rate cuts, which should lead to capital appreciation (and decline in yields). The inclusion of Indian government bonds into JP Morgan’s EM bond index on 28th June was a landmark moment, and we expect robust inflows into the asset class over the next 12-18 months. Favourable demand dynamics, along with attractive yield of around 7% and low correlation with other major bond asset classes lead us to view Indian government bonds as extremely attractive
  • Strong foreign investor inflows and improved current account dynamics are favourable for the INR. We expect RBI to continue to use its sizeable FX reserves to cap currency volatility. We expect mild appreciation for the INR toward the end of 2024

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For SAA/TAA

 

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