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US Perspectives - Historic highs and yet solid future fundamentals

Regional Outlook
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Presidential elections
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US Perspectives
S&P500

US Perspectives - Historic highs and yet solid future fundamentals

by Jose Rasco, CIO, Americas, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth & Michael Zervos, Investment Strategy Analyst, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth
Feb 29, 2024

  • Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are posting all-time highs. But, despite these historic levels, the fundamentals remain constructive for US equities
  • While looking at forward multiples, the markets seem to have gotten more expensive, but multiples remain below their prior historic highs
  • FactSet consensus expectations for earnings in 2024 are +10.9 per cent and +13.1per cent in 2025. This above-trend growth in earnings has kept multiples contained for now. Going forward, the multiples can go higher as the best-performing companies continue to produce strong earnings
  • Historically, US equities have rallied in the Presidential election years. During the last 12 presidential elections, the S&P has on average outperformed global markets 75 per cent of the time by an average of 4 per cent
  • We still see further upside in the technology sector as we are at the beginning of the new emerging technology revolution, which should provide a supportive set of fundamentals
  • The diffusion of emerging technologies is expected to lift productivity and expand the returns on invested capital. In addition, the convergence of new and existing technologies should enable the creation of highly disruptive products and services and even new business models
  • From a cyclical perspective, the process of creative destruction should result in more productive and disruptive companies
  • Therefore, the combination of tailwinds provided by secular themes, such as the emerging technology revolution, near/onshoring, and the re-industrialisation of the US manufacturing sector, along with the cyclical lowering of policy and market rates, are supportive of our overweight position in US equities. In fact, this month, we added to our existing US stock overweight amid positive growth and rate fundamentals

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